Look, it’s simple math. In almost every poll I’ve seen since the Democratic Primary race began, Biden has been ahead of both Warren and Sanders. However, in those same polls, Warren plus Sanders is greater than Biden.
Elizabeth Warren was the first Democrat to announce her candidacy on February 19, 2019. I thought then that the best thing that could happen for Progressive Democrats would be for Bernie to endorse her immediately and not enter the race himself.
That, of course, did not happen. Since then, the media has depicted the race as “Moderate Democrats” (Biden, Buttigieg, etc) vs. “the Liberal Wing” (Warren & Sanders). (Personally I would argue that Warren and Sanders ARE the “Moderate (FDR/JFK) Democrats”).
The “moderates” will eventually settle on one candidate and I believe it will be Biden. I don’t think any candidate who is still in single digits, at this late date, is going to threaten his lead. (I also wish most of them would drop out of the race).
Stopping Biden
To me, the only one who can take the nomination away from Joe Biden is Elizabeth Warren, and she can only do this if Bernie Sanders gives her his support and his voters.
I realize that some of my readers will be thinking, “No, SHE should drop out and support Bernie!” I recognize and appreciate their loyalty to him. I like Bernie a lot and credit him for largely being the one who helped return the Democratic Party to its roots (labor, environment, social justice, etc).
Personally I believe that Bernie Sanders will never receive the Democratic Nomination for President because, well, Bernie Sanders is not a Democrat. Democratic Primary voters know this. In addition, while he seems able to energize many young people, he struggles with older voters and women.
A Progressive Unity Ticket
One solution might be a “Progressive Unity Ticket” with Warren at the top and Sanders as VP. Yes, I can hear you. Why not Bernie at the top and Liz as VP? Actually, I could support that. I just believe that the negotiations between these two camps needs to get started now. We need to stop dividing the progressive Democratic vote.
Perhaps a unity ticket could wait through the Iowa caucuses and the first few primaries (New Hampshire, South Carolina). I believe, however, that to be effective in the delegate count it would need to be announced before Super Tuesday (March 3). In 2020, fourteen states will vote on that day, including delegate-rich California and Texas.
If we cannot unify progressive Democrats behind one candidate soon we will not get a progressive nominee. If we don’t get a progressive nominee we will probably get Joe Biden.
America needs rapid dramatic change
If we get a President Biden, things will certainly be better than four more years of Trump. Wages may go up, health care may improve. But we will not get the kind of systemic changes that are long overdue. And, lest we forget, there is disastrous long-term crisis that continues to pick up speed and that “the moderates” continue to ignore.
Under a President Biden, climate change may slow, but it will not stop. Joe is an excellent, old-school, Democratic negotiator and compromiser, but what we need now is rapid, dramatic change. Joe Biden is not that kind of leader.
If we get another four years of Trump, well, if the increased poverty or lack of health care don’t kill you, the wildfires and drought eventually will.
America is to some extent in a partisan civil war, and we essentially have three competing views on how to end it: A Biden/Bush/Kristol style approach that downplays divisions among America’s various identity groups and reaches for more compromises; a Sanders/Warren approach of resetting America along more equal lines; and a Trump/Barr vision that is decidedly Judeo-Christian and favors maintaining traditional norms over upsetting them to expand equality.
Perry Bacon, Jr.
Sources: Tessa Stuart, “Elizabeth Warren: The Rolling Stone Interview,” Rolling Stone, December 19, 2019.
Perry Bacon, Jr., “What Unites Republicans May Be Changing. Same With Democrats,” FiveThirtyEight, December 17, 2019.
Rich Benjamin, “Opinion: It’s time for Bernie and his bros to get behind Elizabeth Warren,” Los Angeles Times, October 13, 2019.
John Stoehr, “Bernie Sanders Is Still Not a Democrat,” Washington Monthly, February 20, 2019.
Natalie Shure, “Who to Vote For: Bernie Sanders Vs. Elizabeth Warren Edition,” Elle, February 8, 2019.