Since at least the 1890’s, the phrase “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” has been used to diminish the persuasive value of numbers in an argument. A person who uses that phrase is trying to weaken the persuasive case of an opponent by implying that “statistics” can be found to support any point of view. On the other hand, a scientist or mathematician would say that selectively using numbers to prove a pre-existing point of view, is not “statistics,” but, rather, a misuse of statistics.
Actually, another less popular phrase is more accurate, “The numbers do not lie.” Numbers are just data. It takes people to make numbers lie. The problem is that the general public either doesn’t know their math very well, or they forget to apply mathematical thinking to the social and political claims of politicians and propagandists.
Context counts
One of the first errors we make is to ignore context. Even mainstream news sources often leave this out. You might see headlines such as, “Unemployment Down,” or “Stock Market Up.” These headlines might sound positive but they are actually meaningless. Up and down are relative terms. They only have meaning if you answer the question, “compared to what?”
Time span is probably the most important piece of context necessary to understand most statistics. For example, what if I offered to pay you a salary of $1,000 to work for me? Many people would first ask, “What is the work?” But the more important question is, “What is the time period? Are we talking $1,000 a month or $1,000 a week?”
Do you see how the answer to this question might influence what type of work a person would be willing to do? They say “everyone has his price.” I don’t happen to believe that is true of everyone. But I suspect more people would be willing to be corrupted by $1,000 an hour than by $1,000 a year.
Percentage of what?
Another huge area of deception is in the use of percentages. The percentage number really tells you nothing unless you know what it is a percentage of. What is the 100%?
For example: Is 20% off the price of a dress at one store better than 10% of the price of the same dress at another store? Doing the math shows that it is NOT better if the “original price” at the first store was $120 ($120 minus $24 (20%) = $96) and the “original price” at the second store was $100. ( $100 – $10 (10%) = $90).
One must remember that it is the store that sets the “original price” that is being discounted. How is the poor customer supposed to know whether or not the “original price” was “jacked up” before the “discount” was created? (Hint: It probably was.)
Don’t be manipulated
Many sources of information are willing to manipulate and misuse numbers to make a sale, or get your vote, or increase their viewership. This has always been true, hence the phrase, “Let the buyer beware!” But in today’s hyper-saturated information environment, it can be much harder to think through all the incoming data, and ask the right questions, and seek additional sources of information, before believing that something is true.
But the effort must be made, especially on such consequential decisions as who to vote for. As citizens in a democracy, we each are responsible for the success or failure of our government. This is especially true now. The norms of our free society are under attack and the fate of American democracy is at stake.
Choose your news sources carefully
Most people just settle into one or two regular sources of news and accept what they hear from those sources. If you must do this, choose very carefully. There actually is such a thing as journalistic ethics. The “mainstream” news outlets care about accuracy and fact check information before they publish it. These are the news sources that deserve your attention and support.
If one has chosen FoxNews as one’s primary or sole source of information, one has chosen to have lies, distortions, false outrage, and deliberate disinformation poured into one’s head daily. This is a terrible, corrosive, brain-damaging, soul-destroying, addiction. Repent, seek help, and pray for the strength to escape.
Now the Spirit speaketh expressly, that in the latter times some shall depart from the faith, giving heed to seducing spirits, and doctrines of devils;
1 Timothy 4:1
Illustration Note: The chart above is a satirical example of using numbers and graphics to distort the truth. An actual statistical manipulation would probably be more subtle. Fox News uses this type of thing to generate outrage at particular political targets. It only works to the degree that the audience is mathematically ignorant or lazy. (Sadly, the number on this chart representing Covid-19 deaths is now much higher).
Sources: Susan Keown, “Numbers don’t lie, but sometimes our brains do,” Fred Hutch News Service, February 13, 2020.
Tobin Smith, Foxocracy: Inside the Network’s Playbook of Tribal Warfare, Diversion Books, 2019.
Jen Senko, “The Brainwashing of My Dad,” (film), 89 minutes, 2016.
I remember taking a statistics class at the U of U from James Croft. Despite the fact that I’ve never had to use statistics professionally, (I’m an English major) the general concepts have been important to keep in mind in dealing with all sorts of things in politics and religion. Another quote on the topic was used, I think, by Hugh Nibley. “Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.” And Jesus warned his listeners about false prophets, who came as wolves in sheep’s clothing. “By their fruits shall ye know them.” That is quite different than saying “By your subjective and personal tastes and inclinations shall ye know them.” He explained it as knowing the characteristics that distinguish figs from thistles, or grapes from thorns, which is different that complaining that one has spotted a fallen grape, or a worm-nibbled fig. Even they point to the source of desirable fruit.
1 (one) is a number. 1 Million is a statistic. When one person dies say like our father or mother, it’s a tragedy, when 115,000 die or 2 million get a certain virus, it’s a statistic.